Genetic engineering attribution is an emerging biosecurity capability, but governance frameworks for making attribution evidence actionable remain underexplored. This project will examine evidentiary standards across comparable forensic domains and propose a framework for operationalizing attribution in legal, diplomatic, and public health contexts.
About the project
Short project description Genetic engineering attribution—the ability to trace engineered pathogens back to their source—is an emerging biosecurity capability with significant implications for deterrence, accountability, and crisis response. Recent advances in machine learning and genomics have demonstrated promising technical results, but a critical question remains underexplored: what governance frameworks are needed for attribution evidence to be actionable? This project will further develop topics I discuss in a recent piece (https://thebulletin.org/2025/12/tracing-engineered-biothreats-with-ai-forensics-five-steps-to-improve-attribution/#post-heading) and will examine evidentiary standards across comparable forensic domains, map the contexts in which attribution evidence might be used, and propose a framework for validating and operationalizing genetic engineering attribution in legal, diplomatic, and public health settings.
Methods
- Literature review of evidentiary standards across forensic domains (nuclear forensics, chemical weapons attribution, cyberattack attribution) and existing international mechanisms for biological incident investigation (UN Secretary-General's Mechanism, BWC consultative processes)
- Interviews with experts at biosecurity organizations, legal and policy experts familiar with international tribunals or sanctions processes, and current or former government officials involved in attribution decisions
Key Research Questions A) Evidentiary Standards Across Contexts
- What evidentiary standards and burdens of proof apply in the different contexts where attribution evidence might be used—public health response, diplomatic action, sanctions, criminal prosecution, international tribunals, public communication?
- How do these standards differ, and what are the implications for how attribution systems should be designed and validated? B) Lessons from Comparable Domains
- How have other forensic technologies (nuclear forensics, chemical weapons verification, cyberattack attribution) achieved credibility and integration into legal and diplomatic decision-making?
- What institutional arrangements, technical standards, and trust-building mechanisms enabled their use, and what lessons transfer to genetic engineering attribution? C) Gaps and Requirements
- What are the current gaps between what attribution systems can deliver and what each use-case requires?
- What institutional, technical, and procedural requirements must be met for attribution evidence to be actionable?
Expected Output The primary output will be a white paper proposing a governance framework for validating, communicating, and operationalizing genetic engineering attribution, with recommendations for policymakers and the technical attribution community.
Background reading: -https://thebulletin.org/2025/12/tracing-engineered-biothreats-with-ai-forensics-five-steps-to-improve-attribution/#post-heading
Theory of change
Advances in AI are accelerating genetic engineering capabilities, increasing the risk that malicious actors could design dangerous pathogens. Robust attribution frameworks are essential for deterrence and accountability in this landscape, but attribution evidence is only useful if governance structures exist to act on it. This project develops the policy infrastructure needed to make AI-powered attribution tools operationally meaningful.
Your role
The mentee should be comfortable working independently. I'll provide clear guidance and will be available for regular check-ins.
Prerequisites
- Experience with literature research
- Familiarity with international law, arms control, or forensic science helpful but not required
- Background in biosecurity a plus
Time commitment
at least 5 hours
Application question(s)
Please explain in under 200 words why you're interested in this project and how your background and skills will help make this project a success.
About the mentor
Anemone Franz is a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on biosafety and biosecurity. Before joining AEI, Dr. Franz worked as a clinical trial physician at the biotech startup Alvea and as an adviser for the nonprofit 80,000 Hours. She was a 2024 fellow in the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity program at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a 2025 International Mid-Career Biosecurity Fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks. She is also a member of the European Leadership Network. Her work has appeared in publications such as the Hill, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Dr. Franz holds a master’s in public health policy from Harvard University and a doctorate in medicine from Julius-Maximilians University of Würzburg.